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  Statistics for Making Decisions (eBook, PDF)

  Making decisions is a ubiquitous mental activity in our private and professional or public lives. It entails choosing one course of action from an available shortlist of options. Statistics for Making Decisions places decision making at the centre of statistical inference, proposing its theory as a new paradigm for statistical practice. The analysis in this paradigm is earnest about prior information and the consequences of the various kinds of errors that may be committed. Its conclusion is a course of action tailored to the perspective of the specific client or sponsor of the analysis. The author's intention is a wholesale replacement of hypothesis testing, indicting it with the argument that it has no means of incorporating the consequences of errors which self-evidently matter to the client. The volume appeals to the analyst who deals with the simplest statistical problems of comparing two samples (which one has a greater mean or variance), or deciding whether a parameter is positive or negative. It combines highlighting the deficiencies of hypothesis testing with promoting a principled solution based on the idea of a currency for error, of which we want to spend as little as possible. This is implemented by selecting the option for which the expected loss is smallest (the Bayes rule). The price to pay is the need for a more detailed description of the options, and eliciting and quantifying the consequences (ramifications) of the errors. This is what our clients do informally and often inexpertly after receiving outputs of the analysis in an established format, such as the verdict of a hypothesis test or an estimate and its standard error. As a scientific discipline and profession, statistics has a potential to do this much better and deliver to the client a more complete and more relevant product. Nicholas T. Longford is a senior statistician at Imperial College, London, specialising in statistical methods for neonatal medicine. His interests include causal analysis of observational studies, decision theory, and the contest of modelling and design in data analysis. His longer-term appointments in the past include Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ, USA, de Montfort University, Leicester, England, and directorship of SNTL, a statistics research and consulting company. He is the author of over 100 journal articles and six other monographs on a variety of topics in applied statistics.

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  Rees Howells' God Challenges the Dictators, Doom of Axis Powers Predicted

  I could not take prayers that morning because I was carried away in the spiritual realms reading my book - Rees Howells, January 1940. Discover the full story of the thrilling and fascinating chronicles of how Rees Howells wrote and published his only work: God Challenges the Dictators at the beginning of World War II. In his own words, Rees Howells describes his life of faith, the founding and ministry of the Bible College of Wales, his predictions and replies to controversy. Learn how his spiritual battles against Adolf Hitler and the spirit behind Nazism began several years before the war, as he predicted the destruction of the Third Reich, began to rescue Jews across Europe and set up a Home of Refuge for child refugees. Centered around World War II, God Challenges the Dictators (GCD) includes historical analysis from intercessors and friends of Rees Howells, the complete text of GCD with annotations, letters to Prime Minister Winston Churchill and others, press releases, quotes from Rees Howells, alongside adverts, newspaper articles and many never-before-seen published images. Copies of GCD were sent to British government officials and Prime Ministers, and extracts were aired over occupied parts of Europe, whilst Hitler and leading Nazi officials were sent copies in 1940! The more I read the book the more wonderful it seemed…I used to read my book in the early hours of the morning and was really thrilled with it - Rees Howells, during WWII. This book serves as an important historical document on the lessons of faith and predictions that Rees Howells and his team of intercessors at the Bible College of Wales learned during the twentieth century. It helps place us in the midst of those exciting years of faith and provides guidance for anyone who moves in the prophetic. With twenty-four black and white digitally enhanced photos. There was a real message in the book and I thought one day, 'Have I ever picked up a book so full of predictions as this one?' - Rees Howells. Marvel and be shocked at the air-raids over Swansea and the 44 attacks over several years, what Rees Howells said during many College meetings, the fear of invasion by the Third Reich, judgment on the Nazi regime, the Belsen Trial of 1945 and the Nuremberg Trials of 1945-1946. Be encouraged and stimulated in faith by the Bible College of Wales Annual Report for 1945 (less than two weeks after V. E. Day), the value of its five estates, and read letters by Rees Howells during and after the war, coupled with the challenges of the Every Creature Commission. Discover how Rees Howells' literary agent introduced him to various publishers, the potential to print a million copies a week, and how it was sanctioned to be translated into European languages. Mathew Backholer is a revival historian, prolific writer, editor, the co-founder of ByFaith Media (www.ByFaith.org), a presenter for ByFaith TV which airs globally on numerous networks and is a guest speaker on Revelation TV. Mathew is a former student and staff member of the Bible College of Wales (BCW) under the Directorship of Samuel Rees Howells and is the official historian of BCW (1924-2009) who has edited and published: Samuel, Son and Successor of Rees Howells by Richard Maton, alongside Samuel Rees Howells: A Life of Intercession by Richard Maton and Paul Backholer. Mathew has written more than nineteen books including the best-selling: Revival Fires and Awakenings; as well as Reformation to Revival, Christianity Rediscovered, Extreme Faith: On Fire Christianity and Short-Term Missions: A Christian Guide to STMs.

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  Eyes Wide Open

  Eyes Wide Open - A first-timer's guide to the real world of boards and company directorship: ab 9.99 €

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  The Globe Collection

  Shakespeares Globe, the reconstruction of his most famous London theatre, is at the centre of the astonishing global fascination with Britains greatest playwright. Completed in 1997, it is a living theatrical experiment that has allowed audiences to experience the impact of Shakespeares stories in the architecture for which he wrote, the result has been a rediscovery of the plays in all their human richness. This collection brings together 22 Globe Theatre productions from 2009 to 2015 during the artistic directorship of Dominic Dromgoole featuring the finest actors and leading directors in a project committed to creating ever wider access to this rich cultural heritage. Shakespeares Comedies, Histories and Tragedies contain dazzling poetry, romance, epic power struggles, human suffering and ingenious, raucous humour. These films capture the unique atmosphere and theatrical space of the Globe Theatre, with the exhilarating sense of interaction in live performances between the audience and the actors on stage exquisitely maintained on screen. Recorded in true Surround Sound.

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  Nflow

  At the age of 11 Earl began his professional music journey singing with the renowned Newark Boys Chorus. Having attended this highly acclaimed boys chorus school, Earl laid the foundation for his life long commitment to, and love for music. With this early exposure to diverse musical styles, Earl's music appreciation was so enhanced as to include, Classical, Jazz, Gospel, and R&b with many stops in between! Performance highlights of the Boys chorus includes: international tours, television performances, and a nationally aired Kraft Food TV commercial featuring Earl. Concert Hall performances include Lincoln Center, (Avery Fisher Hall Dedication), the Kennedy Center in Washington DC, Carnegie Hall and others. These concert hall performances were often led by world famous choral conductors including, Leonard Bernstein, Robert Shaw, Peter Schickley (PDQBach) and others. After these wonder years, Earl continued to exercise his music skills participating in local and regional High School and community talent shows. Instrumental in the formation of the University High School chorus, Earl functioned as student conductor receiving many accolades for his directorship and the high standards for which the choir was known. Earl, along with the UHS chorus, went on to participate in many local and regional choral festivals. With vocal and piano training remaining high priority, Earl enrolled as a student at the Newark Community School of Performing Arts, participating regularly in musical stage productions and vocal recitals at the Newark Symphony Hall. In addition, serving as director of his church youth choir, Earl along with his five siblings, established themselves, (The Lambert Singers) as a highly regarded local family gospel music group in frequent demand throughout the Tri State metropolitan area. He was also a long time member of a local Contemporary Gospel Ensemble, "Loves' Message", a group highly regarded and widely recognized for it's' intricate harmonies and contemporary style. While attending Lebanon Valley College, Earl continued vocal training expanding his repertoire to include popular Gershwin tunes and classical arias for Tenor Voice. As a member of the Lebanon Valley College Concert Choir, Earl traveled extensively through out the US on an annual two week music tour performing a wide range of choral works at many renowned cathedrals and concert halls. Often featured as soloist for the Concert Choir's Negro Spiritual repertoire, Earl pored himself into these heart felt, soul stirring melodies, resulting in what most audiences regarded as a show-stopper. To this day, spirituals remain among Earl's personal favorites. With an ever growing passion for music, Earl eventually combined his unique personal style and creativity together, thereby making a natural transition into the role of singer / songwriter. After performing as a studio session background vocalist for a while, Earl refocused his efforts solely on writing and building an impressive repertoire of original songs. Inevitably carving a pathway of his own, Earl's unique music style began to emerge and easily take shape evolving from obvious influences across a broad range of genres, (Gospel, R&B, Pop and Jazz) and artists such as, Steve Wonder, Luther Vandross, Baby Face, Tony, Toni, Tone, Mint- Condition, Rufus and Chaka Khan, Lionel Richie, James Taylor, Michael McDonald, Michael Franks, Andre' Crouch, Richard Smallwood, The Hawkins Family and more. Influences from other music giants includes, Quincy Jones, Patti Austin, Massa & Incognito, Basia, Phil Perry, Will Downing, George Duke, The Brand New Heavies and others. Collectively, Earl has composed over 100 songs ranging from gospel, R&B Ballads, light Jazz flavored adult contemporary, easy listening songs sure to provide music satisfaction to even the most discriminating ear! Currently, Earl is continuing with vocal studies at the Settlement Music School of Philadelphia. Now, Earl has retuned to on the scene with his second album Nflow, which takes him along with his old, and sure to be many new fans on a powerful musical ride!

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  Complete Works for Cello & Piano

  Ludwig van Beethoven Complete Works for Piano and Cello Sonata in F Major, Op. 5 No. 1 Adagio sostenuto - Allegro RONDO: Allegro vivace Sonata in C Major, Op. 102 No. 1 Andante - Allegro vivace Adagio - Allegro vivace Variations on Mozart's "Ein Mädchen oder Weibchen" from Die Zauberflöte, Op. 66 Sonata in A Major, Op. 69 Allegro ma non tanto SCHERZO: Allegro molto Adagio - Allegro vivace Variations on Handel's "See, the Conquering Hero Comes" from Judas Maccabeus, WoO 45 Sonata in G minor, Op. 5 No. 2 Adagio sostenuto e espressivo Allegro molto più tosto presto Rondo: Allegro Variations on Mozart's 'Bei Männern welche Liebe Fühlen' from Die Zauberflöte, WoO 46 Sonata in D Major, Op. 102 No. 2 Allegro con brio Adagio con molto sentimento d'affeto The Florestan Duo - Stefan Kartman, cello and Jeannie Yu, piano Stefan Kartman, cello, and Jeannie Yu, piano, are two brilliant soloists whose passion for chamber music brought them together in 1987 during their studies at the Juilliard School of Music. Like-minded musicians who share the same concept of an ideal sound, musical expressiveness, and excellence, they carry on a tra-dition whose lineage reaches directly back to the romantic period of Johannes Brahms. This tradition is the basis of inspiration for these shared ideals. Their first meeting occurred in the studio of violinist Joseph Fuchs as they studied Mendelssohn's Piano Trio in C minor. They continued to study chamber music with Fuchs and sonatas with cellist Harvey Shapiro and pia-nist Martin Canin until their graduation in 1989. Both members of the Florestan Duo have since earned their Doctor of Musical Arts degrees and have also worked with cellists Bernard Greenhouse and Zara Nelsova and pianists Susan Starr and Ann Schein, among others. Kartman and Yu have performed to critical acclaim in concert halls and educational institutions throughout the United States, Europe, and the Far East. Recordings of their performances have been aired on WQXR in New York, WFMT in Chicago, and WOI in Ames, Iowa. Most recently they have returned from critically acclaimed tours of Korea, Taiwan, Holland, Italy, and China, including solo performances with the Xiamen Symphony and recitals as a duo in Xiamen, Jinmei, Shanghai, Soest, and Verona. Both members of the Florestan Duo are accomplished teachers of chamber music and solo repertoire, having served on the faculties of Drake University, Illinois Wesleyan University, the Wisconsin Conservatory of Music, the MidAmerica Chamber Music Institute at Ohio Wesleyan University, the Alfred University Summer Chamber Music Institute under the artistic directorship of Joseph Fuchs, the Milwaukee Chamber Music Festival, and the Green Mountain Chamber Music Festival under the artistic directorship of Kevin Lawrence. Kartman is associate professor of cello and chamber music at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Yu freelances in the Milwaukee and Chicago metropolitan areas. Sonata No. 1 in F Major, Op. 5 No. 1 Beethoven's First Cello Sonata begins with a large slow introduction. While it wanders tonally somewhat, it fulfills the essential role of the introduction-to state the main key at the beginning, and to prepare for a return to that key as the Allegro begins. Scholars have pointed to Mozart's Violin Sonata in G major, K. 379, as a pos-sible model for this introduction. To be sure, Mozart's introduction is of similar breadth and tonal plan, and we must remember that Beethoven's principal models for writing cello sonatas-lacking earlier works for cello with a written-out (i.e., not basso continuo) keyboard part-were Mozart's sonatas for violin and piano, which number around twenty. Beethoven's Allegro begins with a long theme, reminiscent to the large theme in the same position in his Septet in E-flat, Op. 20, presented first by the piano and them taken up by the cello. The two sonatas of Op. 5 are vehicles for Beethoven as a young piano virtuoso, written during his stay in Berlin during a concert tour in the spring and summer of 1796. He has given himself, as well as the cellist with whom he was working, Jean Louis Duport, passages of considerable virtuosity. The astute listener will notice pas-sages strikingly similar to portions of Mozart's piano sonatas K. 333 and 570. The movement concludes with a substantial coda which, after the tempo slows to Adagio, turns to a cadenza-like passage, ending with the traditional trill, and reinforcing the virtuoso nature of the work. There is no slow movement. Perhaps the large slow introduction rendered one unnecessary, or perhaps Mozart's several two-movement violin sonatas served as models. The second and final movement, a rondo, begins without stating it's main key clearly, an approach Beethoven also utilized in both movements of the Second Sonata, Op. 5 No. 2 (and Mozart did similarly in the Violin Sonata in C, K. 303, first movement, in the Molto allegro). The writing, again, calls for virtuoso players, and there are marvelous passages in which the cello sustains an open fifth drone while the piano plays an arpeggiated idea. Slower tempos near the end lead to a brilliant conclusion. Sonata No. 4 in C Major, Op. 102 No. 1 "It is so original that no one can understand it on first hearing." So wrote Michael Frey, Hofkapellmeister at Mannheim, about Beethoven's Fourth Cello Sonata. The autograph manuscript of the sonata is dated "toward the end of July 1815," and he titled the work a "free sonata." That it is freer than it's companion, Op. 102 No. 2 (titled simply "sonata"), is evident in the respective layout of the sonatas' movements. While no. 2 is a conventional fast-slow-fast cycle, no. 1 is organized most distinctively. The sonata begins with the cello alone, like the Third Sonata, Op. 69, presenting an idea that comes to take on considerable significance in the totality of the work. The tempo is Andante, and the passage gives way to a concise Allegro vivace in sonata form. Yet the introduction is tonally very unconventional. It ostensibly begins in the home key, though the key of C is not stated explicitly at the beginning. And the introduction ends in the tonic, not the conventional dominant-but the Allegro vivace that follows is in A minor, not C major, and the structure that ensues is in keeping with the traditional treatment of A minor. The music that follows appears initially to be the slow movement. Marked Adagio, it is replete with ornamental gestures, and proves to be more an interlude than a full slow movement. (The only true slow movement in Beethoven's cello sonatas is in the Fifth Sonata, Op. 102 No. 2.) This Adagio, only nine measures long, gives way to a return of the material that began the sonata, a cyclic return of seven measures that leads to the finale, a lighthearted sonata form movement in the home key of C. It's fugal development section might be viewed as a counterpart to the fugal finale of Op. 102 No. 2. Further, the overall shape of the Fourth Sonata, including the cyclic return of it's opening idea, is also to be found in the Piano Sonata in A major, Op. 101, written in the same period, and it has been suggested that the works that comprise Beethoven's Opp. 101 and 102 comprise a trilogy. Variations on Mozart's "Ein Mädchen oder Weibchen" from Die Zauberflöte, Op. 66 Beethoven composed this first of his two sets of variations on a theme from Mozart's Die Zauberflöte in 1796, in the same period when he wrote the two cello sonatas Op. 5, and it was published in Vienna in 1798. The passage from the opera that he selected appears late in the second and final act. It is a catchy, strophic song for Papageno, the bucolic and comic figure of a bird-catcher who is an amusing and gently annoying character during the opera, ever since his initial appearance in the second number of act I ("Der Vogelfänger bin ich ja"). In "Ein Mädchen oder Weibchen," Papageno pines for a girlfriend-and it works, as Papagena enters just as the aria concludes, appearin

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