51 Results for : forecasters

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    Flash Foresight: How to See the Invisible and Do the Impossible , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 613min
    Today we all face more impossible challenges than ever before. But flash foresight lets you transform the impossible into the possible, revealing hidden opportunities and allowing you to solve your biggest problems before they happen. Daniel Burrus is one of the world's leading forecasters, corporate strategists, and visionaries. Over the past quarter century, he has established a reputation worldwide for his exceptional record of accurately predicting the future of technological change and its direct impact on the business world. "Wouldn't it be amazing if you could predict the future - and be right?" writes Burrus. "You can: all you have to do is leave out the parts you could be wrong about! And the amazing thing is, when you know where to look, there's more than enough you can be right about to make all the difference." From small businesses to multinationals, individual careers to entire industries, Flash Foresight looks at how Burrus's seven radical flash foresight "triggers" have transformed dozens of careers, fortunes, and lives. Both engaging and enlightening, Flash Foresight provides an easy-to-implement blueprint for applying the same strategies to your own business, enabling you to see the invisible and do the impossible. In the past, flash foresight was useful. Today, as the pace of technological change accelerates almost beyond the point of comprehension, it's an imperative. ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: William Dufris. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/harp/002386/bk_harp_002386_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    Storm of the Century: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 857min
    In 1934, hundreds of jobless World War I veterans were sent to the remote Florida Keys to build a highway from Miami to Key West. The Roosevelt Administration was making a genuine effort to help these down-and-out vets, many of whom suffered from what is known today as post-traumatic stress disorder. But the attempt to help them turned into a tragedy. The supervisors in charge of the veterans misunderstood the danger posed by hurricanes in the low-lying Florida Keys. In late August 1935, a small, stealthy tropical storm crossed the Bahamas, causing little damage. When it entered the Straits of Florida, however, it exploded into one of the most powerful hurricanes on record. But US Weather Bureau forecasters could only guess at its exact position, and their calculations were well off the mark. The hurricane that struck the Upper Florida Keys on the evening of September 2, 1935, is still the most powerful hurricane to make landfall in the US. Supervisors waited too long to call for an evacuation train from Miami to move the vets out of harm’s way. The train was slammed by the storm surge soon after it reached Islamorada. Only the 160-ton locomotive was left upright on the tracks. About 400 veterans were left unprotected in flimsy work camps. Around 260 of them were killed. This is their story. It includes stories of some of the heroes of the Labor Day 1935 calamity. ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Jason Culp. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/acx0/167180/bk_acx0_167180_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits, and Profits in the Commodity Casino , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 306min
    This book will help you make better investment decisions in commodity markets. Find out which pundits and forecasters really know what they are talking about and track them. Understand the factors you can use to hold the 'experts' to account."A highly practical book that every investor and analyst needs to listened to several times....shows why investors need to do their own research, and not just follow the pundits" (Samir Madani, #OOTT and Tanker Trackers)"With technology, geopolitics, and economics colliding to make commodities a challenging place to invest, Peter's timely book on the folly of commodity forecasting serves as a cautionary tale and a guide to preventing us from repeating the mistakes of the past." (Chris Berry, House Mountain Partners)"Essential listening for investors and executives" (Paul Hodges, International eChem)In Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits, and Profits in the Commodity Casino, Peter Sainsbury, economist, commodity investor and blogger at Materials Risk, shows how you can take back control.In this book you'll learn:Why incentives tell you everything about financial market punditsWhat warning signs to watch out forForecasting principles and practiceHow to be a more sophisticated consumer of financial mediaWhat you can do to avoid your business, industry, or country becoming a commodity "white elephant"What you can do to make better investments in commodities and other financial assets.Peter Sainsbury is also the author of Commodities: 50 Things You Really Need to Know and The Winning Formula: Betting on F1. ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Glen Pavlovich. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/acx0/101735/bk_acx0_101735_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    It's Not as Bad as You Think: Why Capitalism Trumps Fear and the Economy Will Thrive , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 460min
    Even with the economy feeling a little bit better, there is a real fear that markets will stay down and things won't ever get back to normal. But a few brave voices say that this attitude is just too pessimistic. Capitalism has not failed. And it's not time to just give up - on free markets or a better tomorrow. History shows that every time the economy was thought to be done, worn out, finished, it bounced back. The economy is not as fragile as the pessimists think. In fact, things are already improving. Even housing is showing signs of life. With It's Not as Bad as You Think, Brian Wesbury, ranked as one of the top economic forecasters by the Wall Street Journal and USA Today, shows you that the future is much brighter than you think. A great confluence of negativity and government mistakes dragged attitudes and the economy down, but this won't last. With this easy-to-follow analysis of tomorrow and guide through yesterday, Wesbury debunks the pouting pundits of pessimism to show you how to prosper now and in the future. A breath of fresh air, Wesbury's objectivity and optimism provide welcome relief to the daily bad news stories. So if you need an antidote to conventional wisdom and are willing to look beyond the events that have already occurred, pick up It's Not as Bad as You Think and discover how you can capitalize on the profitable possibilities of tomorrow. ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Sean Pratt. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/gdan/000332/bk_gdan_000332_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry (eBook, PDF)
    Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making. In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex 'black box' equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Arthur G. Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. The text is liberally illustrated with tables, diagrams and examples. The final extended case study provides the reader with an opportunity to test out their knowledge. The second edition has been updated throughout and includes a brand new chapter focusing on specialized topics such as forecasting for orphan drugs and biosimilars.
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    Normal: A Novel , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 204min
    A smart, tight, provocative techno-thriller straight out of the very near future - by an iconic visionary writer. Some people call it "abyss gaze". Gaze into the abyss all day and the abyss will gaze into you. There are two types of people who think professionally about the future: Foresight strategists are civil futurists who think about geoengineering and smart cities and ways to evade Our Coming Doom; strategic forecasters are spook futurists, who think about geopolitical upheaval and drone warfare and ways to prepare clients for Our Coming Doom. The former are paid by nonprofits and charities, the latter by global security groups and corporate think tanks. For both types, if you're good at it, and you spend your days and nights doing it, then it's something you can't do for long. Depression sets in. Mental illness festers. And if the abyss gaze takes hold there's only one place to recover: Normal Head, in the wilds of Oregon, within the secure perimeter of an experimental forest. When Adam Dearden, a foresight strategist, arrives at Normal Head, he is desperate to unplug and be immersed in sylvan silence. But then a patient goes missing from his locked bedroom, leaving nothing but a pile of insects in his wake. A staff investigation ensues; surveillance becomes total. As the mystery of the disappeared man unravels in Warren Ellis's Normal, Adam uncovers a conspiracy that calls into question the core principles of how and why we think about the future - and the past, and the now. ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: John Hodgman. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/aren/002393/bk_aren_002393_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    Summary: Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting Summary: The Art and Science of Prediction , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 21min
    This is a summary of Tetlock and Gardner's New York Times best seller: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters". In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Don Moffit. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/acx0/060003/bk_acx0_060003_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 585min
    From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters". In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic. PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio. ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Joel Richards. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/adbl/013483/bk_adbl_013483_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    The Great Mental Models: Decision Making, Logical-Analysis, Problem-Solving, and Increasing Your Brain Power , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 183min
    The world's greatest problem-solvers, forecasters, and decision-makers all rely on a set of frameworks and shortcuts that help them cut through complexity and separate good ideas from bad ones.Mental models are like giving a treasure map to someone lost in the woods. They provide instant understanding, context, and most importantly, a path to the end destination.How can mental models help you? Well, here are just a few examples....If you've ever been overwhelmed by a to-do list that's grown too long, maybe you need the Eisenhower Decision Matrix to help you prioritize.Use the 5 Whys model to better understand people's motivations or get to the root cause of a problem.Before concluding that your colleague who messes up your projects is out to sabotage you, consider Hanlon's Razor for an alternative explanation.Ever sat through a bad movie just because you paid a lot for the ticket? You might be falling prey to Sunk Cost Fallacy.Set up Forcing Functions, like standing meeting or deadlines, to help grease the wheels for changes you want to occur.So, the next time you find yourself faced with a difficult decision or just trying to understand a complex situation, let Super Thinking upgrade your brain with mental models.The goal of this book is helping you understand how your brain works and help you reprogram your own successful mindset. This will lead you to the life you really want by releasing your mental breaks.You will learn:What is a mental modelWhich mental models are successfulWhich techniques can help you being more productiveSet your mind for happiness.Practice your self-discipline to increase your self-esteem.This book has examples and tools you can use in your everyday life, so you can work on the things that really matter to achieve success and happiness in your life. You can learn all the thin ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Emmanuel Chumaceiro. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/acx0/209238/bk_acx0_209238_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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    Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making: A Bradford Book , Hörbuch, Digital, ungekürzt, 737min
    An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision-making can get us into trouble - and why experience can't be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods.In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines - gather as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice, we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly following procedures. In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes 10 commonly accepted claims about decision-making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and complete - but that doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.) Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examples - ranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O'Brian's Master and Commander novels - to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn't. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything.PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF wil ungekürzt. Language: English. Narrator: Douglas James. Audio sample: https://samples.audible.de/bk/acx0/225673/bk_acx0_225673_sample.mp3. Digital audiobook in aax.
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